Nike’s turnaround strategy faces stiff headwinds from tariffs and rivals

Signs of recovery are beginning to emerge at Nike under CEO Elliott Hill, but the path forward remains uncertain amid intensifying competition, delayed launches and geopolitical headwinds. The company reported a 12% revenue drop and earnings per share of $0.14 in the fourth quarter, while Faith Kipyegon’s attempt to break the four-minute mile in Paris — backed by Nike — fell just short. 

“You have to dare to try,” said Nike Chief Executive Officer Elliott Hill on the analysts’ call following both the attempt in Paris and the company’s fourth-quarter results.

Hill has taken on the challenge of reviving the sportswear giant that faltered under former CEO John Donahoe. And there were the first signs on Thursday that his makeover is working. But investors, who pushed the shares up as much as 11% in pre-market trading, shouldn’t get carried away. There are still some stumbling blocks — not least the ambition of Hill’s counterpart at Adidas AG, Bjorn Gulden, who wants to capitalize on the heat around its trendy sneakers to increase sales of athletic footwear — just the part of the market that Hill’s recovery hinges on.

Nike is making progress in clearing out stocks of out-of-fashion sneakers, particularly the Air Force 1. The company believes it will have worked through the backlog by the end of the first half of this fiscal year. Not having to discount so heavily should boost profitability. Nike expects its gross margin — the difference between the price at which it buys and sells goods — to be down by 3.5 to 4.25 percentage points, including a 1 percentage point hit from tariffs, in the first quarter, compared with a 4.4 percentage point decline in the final three months.

The company also looks to be ending its new product drought. The Vomero 18 shoe has generated more than $100 million in sales since its launch at the end of February. Meanwhile, the frenzy around the new hybrid loafer and sneaker, the Air Max Phenomena, has driven resale prices beyond $500 — even before its official release. That looks like a blast from Nike’s past, when new models had sneakerheads salivating.

Also evoking the kind of innovation that has been so sorely lacking is the Cryoshot, which reinterprets classic football boots for everyday dressing. It builds on the #bootsonlysummer TikTok trend of wearing soccer cleats in the street. For the past two and a half years, such foresight has largely belonged to Gulden. It’s a welcome shift to see Nike finally riding a trend — rather than missing it, as it did with retro low-rise shoes.

But Hill is far from the finish line.

The delay in launching NikeSkims — the collaboration between the sportswear giant and Kim Kardashian’s shapewear company — looks like an own goal, especially given the hype around the tie-up. Of course, Hill wants to make such an important debut, right? However, the long gap between the February announcement and the product release seems unfortunate. It gives rivals like Lululemon Athletica Inc. time to spruce up their collections.

The CEO also faces the challenge of Donald Trump’s tariffs. While no company is immune from the levies, they are especially unhelpful to retailers amid revival plans, such as Nike, Target Corp. and Gap Inc.

Nike said it faced a cost — before any measures to mitigate the impact of tariffs — of about $1 billion. However, it aims to work with its suppliers and retail partners to offset some of the expense and will implement “surgical” price increases beginning this fall.

The last time sneaker makers encountered such a significant external challenge was four years ago, when Covid-19 lockdowns in Vietnam disrupted supply chains. At the time, Nike didn’t struggle with demand — consumers were still clamoring for its sneakers.

Today, however, it faces fierce competition not only from a resurgent Adidas but also from rising challengers like On Holding AG and Deckers Outdoor Corp.’s Hoka, which gained ground while Donahoe pursued his ill-fated strategy of selling directly through Nike’s own stores and websites. As in the luxury sector, brands that remain highly desirable to consumers will be the ones able to raise prices.

Through to Thursday’s close, Nike shares are down about 34% over the past year, and about 23% since Hill’s appointment in September. They trade at about 2 times the next 12 months’ sales, compared with Adidas’s 1.5 times.

That premium will look too lofty until Hill can turn trying into victory.

The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the publication or its affiliates. Andrea Felsted is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering consumer goods and the retail industry. Previously, she was a reporter for the Financial Times.

FashionNetwork.com with Reuters