Free MLB home run picks, odds, lines for June 27: Juan Soto among best bets for Friday HR player props

Juan Soto is batting .325 with a 1.223 OPS in 24 games for the Mets in June after hitting below .245 the first two months of the 2025 MLB season. His power has increased substantially, with 10 home runs in June, compared to nine in March, April and May combined. Our model expects that to continue as one of its top MLB home run picks for Friday. Soto has eight total hits in his last six games and went yard twice on Wednesday, coming through for anyone who backed him with their MLB HR picks.

With +450 MLB home run odds from FanDuel Sportsbook today, where you can get $150 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins with this FanDuel promo code, the model projects value in backing Soto. The 26-year-old has five home runs over his last six games, leading to this projection. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks on betting sites.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It nailed Ronald Acuna (+350) and Ketel Marte (+380) to homer on Monday, and it’s up 16.65 units on its MLB HR picks during the last 80 days. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Friday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog. 

You can also view the model’s top MLB player prop picks and the model’s free MLB picks for Cardinals vs. Guardians on Friday. 

Best MLB home run picks for Friday, June 27:

• Nick Kurtz, Athletics (+500)
• Juan Soto, Mets (+450)
• Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks (+525)
• Parlay these picks for +17087 odds at BetMGM (odds subject to change)

Nick Kurtz, Athletics (+500)

The Athletics didn’t want to waste Kurtz’s time in the minor leagues. Kurtz was selected No. 4 overall in the 2024 MLB Draft and played 33 minor league games before making his MLB debut on April 23. He had 46 home runs over 110 games in his final two college seasons at Wake Forest, and he’s showcasing that power in the majors with 11 home runs over 43 games as a rookie. Kurtz has been a streaky hitter throughout his baseball life, even before entering the majors, and his five home runs over the last 10 games are another example of that. 

“This type of run is not out of the ordinary for Kurtz, who hit 11 home runs in a seven-game span at Wake Forest last season,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said.  “The reason you can get +500 odds is the weather is supposed to be pitcher-friendly (3 out of 10 on the home run index), but Kurtz is a left-handed batter that gets to work with the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium.” He is priced at +450 odds on BetMGM for the parlay, but you can play him at +500 on DraftKings Sportsbook, and the latest DraftKings promo code is offering new users $150 in bonus bets instantly after making their first $5 bet.

Juan Soto, Mets (+450)

Soto takes his hot June on the road as the Mets begin a series with the Pittsburgh Pirates, and Soto has nine of his 19 home runs on the road with a higher OPS (.916) away from New York as well. He’s tied for the most home runs (10) with the second-best slugging percentage in baseball (.738) this month, and Fetner expects this matchup to bode him well during his streak as well.

“Soto doesn’t have a home run against Mitch Keller, but he is 4-for-10 with two walks in his career against him, indicating he sees the ball well when Keller is pitching,” Fetner said. “We set the line at +380 for Soto to homer.” FanDuel is offering the best odds on this play at +450, and you can use the latest FanDuel promo code here for an even greater reward if Soto goes deep.

Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks (+525)

Fetner notes Marte’s home run line drastically differs at various sportsbooks, so this is a prime example of why comparing odds is often worth your time. BetMGM is offereing Marte at +525 odds, while other multiple other sportsbooks have him below +350 odds. He had multiple hits, including a home run, in back-to-back games before going 0-for-4 on Wednesday, but given his three home runs over the last five games and a matchup against Marlins RHP Eury Perez, who has a 6.17 ERA in three starts this season, the model sees strong value in Marte going deep on Friday.

“Marte is hitting .343 with 12 of his 15 HRs against RHPs,” Fetner said. “He has also been scorching hot in June, hitting .365 with seven home runs in just 22 games. Marlins’ SP Eury Perez hasn’t given up a home run in his three starts this season after missing all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery. Perez did allow 1.5 HR/9 in 2023 before he got hurt, so we expect some regression going forward. … We set Marte’s line at +300 to homer.” The latest BetMGM promo code gives new users up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet loses, and given the odds discrepancies, BetMGM is the best to make the wager. 

Where to bet MLB props on Friday

Here is a look at sportsbooks that will offer MLB player props on Friday:

More MLB picks for Friday

You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Friday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.

Need more from SportsLine? SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall is also 24-19-1 (+734) over his last 44 MLB picks, and he already has multiple picks locked in for Friday. 

Finally, SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is 170-98 (+1417.75) over his last 268 MLB picks, also has locked in a pick for Friday. Visit SportsLine for his best plays for today.