Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez Offer High-Floor Astros Some Ceiling

The end of the Houston Astros dynasty was seemingly at hand. After seven straight appearances in the American League Championship Series from 2017-23, featuring four World Series appearances and a pair of championships, the Astros were swept out of the 2024 playoffs in two games in the wild card round. This was followed by an offseason that featured the departure of stars Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman. About the only hope remaining was the club’s “high floor”.

I have often written about this aspect of the club. It derives from some of their key characteristics – an overarching ability to put the ball in play on offense, a pitching staff that induces a bunch of grounders, and quality team defense, particularly in the infield. Over time, many of the drivers of their upside, from George Springer to Carlos Correa to Gerrit Cole to Justin Verlander to Tucker and Bregman, departed. Then, early in 2025, remaining offensive superstar Yordan Alvarez was sidelined by a hand injury that has yet to relent. Game over, right? Not so fast.

All of their “high floor” traits remain intact, but the boost toward the ceiling has come from other sources. On the offensive side, SS Jeremy Pena (now injured) and 3B Isaac Paredes have been mainstays. But the really big news has taken place on the pitching side, where righty Hunter Brown and lefty Framber Valdez give the Astros the premier matching set of aces in the American League.

Brown has been a breakout pick of mine for a while now. The “now” performance stepped up to a new level in 2024, but there were still hints of additional upside that have kicked in this season. Starting pitchers have three main jobs – miss bats, minimize walks, and manage contact. Durability and innings bulk represent the cherry on top. In 2024, he was an above average bat-misser, but not by much. His walk rate was in the league average range, and his 170 innings pitched, while a career high, represented the first time he qualified for an ERA title. The most intriguing thing about his season was his contact management performance – Brown posted an 88 Adjusted Contact Score, finishing 2nd to Corbin Burnes in the AL Contact Manager of the Year race. So plenty of now stuff to get excited about, but what if he could enhance his K and BB rates, along with his durability? The upside was beyond intriguing.

And here we are. His K rate has spiked to 32.1%, his BB rate has dropped to 7.6%. Both are career bests. He could make a run at 200 innings pitched. And his average velocity is up across his entire repertoire. His Adjusted Contact Score is still solid at 92, as he continues to throttle authority across all batted ball types and possess the rare, desirable high grounder-low fly ball-average pop up rate combination. Brown is now an inner-circle Cy Young contender at age 26.

He hasn’t been as good as his current numbers suggest – his “Tru” ERA- of 69 (my batted ball-based proxy for ERA) is a bit worse than his 44 ERA- and 65 FIP-. But he’s legit. His 85.4 mph overall average exit speed allowed is even better than his 2024 86.0 mph mark, which was best in the AL. His present is extremely bright, and there’s no reason to expect near term slippage.

Then there’s Valdez. He’s 31, and has been a mainstay of the Astro rotation since 2020. Unlike Brown, with his exceptional now stuff and potential for more, Valdez is what he is what he is, and has been for an extended period. Bottom line – running a 60%ish grounder rate covers a lot of weaknesses. The squatty southpaw doesn’t post outstanding K or BB rates, and isn’t a consistently elite contact manager despite all those ground balls. He tends to allow harder than average authority across all batted ball types – but when you’re running a 60% grounder rate, an average 100 Adjusted Contact Score – he’s at 101 right now, and has a career best of 87 – is pretty much your floor. (Yup, there goes that high floor again.)

But while Valdez may not over-the-top excel qualitatively, he sure does quantitatively. He’s led the AL in innings pitched once (in 2022 with 201 1/3) and is squarely in the race in that department this season. He’s AVERAGING exactly seven innings per start, putting him on a pace for 231 frames. That’s a whole bunch of innings that fungible middle relievers don’t have to pitch.

Valdez has been quite fortunate on balls in play this season – his 93 “Tru”- is way above his 68 ERA- and 73 FIP-, with actual, Unadjusted Contact Scores below his adjusted marks for fly balls (118 vs. 124), liners (65 vs. 95) and grounders (92 vs. 122). He hasn’t suddenly jumped up in class from prior seasons – his batted ball distribution and authority profiles are in line with career norms, and his pitch usage and velocity profiles are as well. But each and every time he takes the mound, he gets around the order three times and keeps the ball on the ground. You’re going to have to beat Valdez with a bunch of singles, as you’re not likely to get the big blow.

It’s tough to lose a bunch of games in a row when you’ve got a pair of cats like this at the top of your rotation. The Phillies rolled into town last week and scored all of one run in the entire series, an Astro sweep. Those Phillies might be the only club in the game with a comparable #1-2 (maybe 3, in their case) punch. With a comfortable lead in the AL West, the Astros are becoming a pretty safe bet to again reach the playoffs, and the Brown-Valdez combo makes them a very tough out once they get there.