Two contenders in the National League collide when the Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies play the second game of their three-game series at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. In the series opener on Monday, the Phillies’ Brandon Marsh drove in the winning run in the 11th inning for a 4-3 win. On Tuesday Philadelphia’s Mick Abel (1-0, 0.79 ERA) takes the mound against Chicago’s Colin Rea (4-2, 3.59).
Sportsbooks have set Abel’s total strikeout player prop at 4.5 (Over -110, Under -112), while Rea’s is 3.5 (Over -136, Under +115). The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates both Abel Over 4.5 and Rea Over 3.5 as 4-star plays on its five-star scale.
However, the model has found better value elsewhere on Tuesday’s 15-game schedule. There’s one pitcher strikeout player prop that the model has rated at 5 stars that would pay plus-money and two rated at 4.5 stars. Here they are:
Noah Cameron Over 3.5 strikeouts (-165) vs. Yankees (7:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.0 strikeouts
The 25-year-old Kansas City rookie has pitched very well to start his career, with an 0.85 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in 31.2 innings and going 2-1. His performance has allowed the Royals to stick with a six-man rotation for the time being. Though he has gone Over 3.5 only once in five starts this season, the lefty has shown he can pile up strikeouts; three starts ago he fanned eight against the Twins. On Tuesday he faces a New York club that has struck out 564 times this season, the eighth-most in all of the majors.
Carson Palmquist Over 3.5 strikeouts (-130) vs. Giants (8:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.8 strikeouts
Though the Rockies rookie (0-4, 8.50) has struggled this season, he is coming off a big strikeout performance in his last start, fanning eight while walking two in just 4.2 innings against the Mets. Tonight he is set to face a San Francisco lineup that has struck out 558 times this season; just three National League teams have struck out more.
Mitch Spence Over 3.5 strikeouts (+114) vs. Angels (9:38 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 4.9 strikeouts
This is the model’s best strikeout prop for Tuesday. After 22 straight appearances out of the bullpen, the A’s righty (2-1, 4.09) is slated to start his second straight game. In his last start he went Over 3.5 strikeouts, fanning four in 5.0 innings against the Twins. On Tuesday he has a juicy matchup against the Angels, who have struck out more times (631) than any other team in all of baseball.
