If getting the most headlines was correlated to winning then I would pick the Pittsburgh Steelers as this season’s Super Bowl champion.
The Steelers have made more noise than any team this offseason thanks to the high-profile (and long-awaited) signing of Aaron Rodgers and a few blockbuster trades, but what does it really amount to?
Few teams have ever had an offseason like the Steelers. They added players with a combined 26 career Pro Bowl selections between Aaron Rodgers (10), Jalen Ramsey (7), Darius Slay (6), DK Metcalf (2) and Jonnu Smith (1). It’s the fourth-most Pro Bowl selections ever added in one offseason behind the 2020 Buccaneers (32), 2008 Jets (31) and 2000 Washington (31). Pittsburgh can look to the Buccaneers for inspiration as that team actually did win a Super Bowl after adding Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Brown and Leonard Fournette, among others.
The Steelers lost a lot, too, moving on from Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, Najee Harris, George Pickens, Minkah Fitzpatrick and more. The last time a team had more combined Pro Bowl selections added to and subtracted from their team (Pittsburgh had 42) in one offseason was in 2004 with the Raiders (Tim Brown and Jerry Rice left).
As one of my co-workers put it, it was like spamming your Madden franchise with star additions in the offseason. It’s somewhat reminiscent of the Eagles ‘dream team’ offseason in 2011 when they added Vince Young, Ronnie Brown, Jason Babin, Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.
After all of those moves, it was only fitting for the Steelers to reward the architect, agreeing to a three-year extension with GM Omar Khan.
Steelers notable offseason moves
So were the Steelers just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic or will their big moves actually amount to anything? Let’s go position-by-position.
Quarterback
- In: Aaron Rodgers, Will Howard
- Out: Russell Wilson, Justin Fields
The Steelers are the second team in NFL history to add a Super Bowl-winning quarterback (Aaron Rodgers) and lose another (Russell Wilson) in the same offseason (2023 Jets with Joe Flacco and Rodgers).
It took the Steelers four months into the offseason to finally sign Rodgers, who was reportedly their third choice at quarterback after Matthew Stafford and Justin Fields. Talk about letting the air out of the balloon. The four-time MVP is more talented than Russell Wilson. But, he’s also 41 years old, hasn’t had a good season in four years and comes with baggage.
You could definitely argue this is a lateral move but I’ll say it’s marginal improvement. Rodgers was one of the worst starters in the NFL last year (33rd in completion percentage over expected) but finished the season playing better ball and has more upside than Wilson.
Verdict: marginal improvement
Running back
- In: Kaleb Johnson, Kenneth Gainwell
- Out: Najee Harris
Najee Harris’ departure is a case of addition by subtraction, even after four straight 1,000-yard rushing seasons to begin his career. He ranked third-worst in the NFL in explosive run rate (5.7% of rushes went for 12+ yards) among players with 200+ carries last season. Jaylen Warren and rookie third-round pick Kaleb Johnson can both add explosive plays the Steelers offense desperately needs. Johnson had an explosive run on 15.0% of his rushes last season, fifth-highest in the FBS (among 33 players with 200+ rushes).
Verdict: improvement
Steelers’ Jonnu Smith gets candid on trade from Dolphins, says Pittsburgh is ‘where I’m appreciated’
Brad Crawford
Wide receiver
The Steelers are the 12th team in NFL history to both add (DK Metcalf) and lose (George Pickens) a player coming off a season with 900+ receiving yards in one offseason. They were flashy trades that look like lateral moves on paper because both Metcalf and Pickens are two of the more talented receivers in the league, but both have some baggage and have yet to put it all together.
This is a marginal improvement for the Steelers because Metcalf more closely resembles A.J. Brown, who Arthur Smith had a lot of success with as the Titans offensive coordinator from 2019-20.
Verdict: marginal improvement
Tight end
- In: Jonnu Smith
- Out: No one notable
Jonnu Smith was fourth among all tight ends in yards per route run (1.96) last season (minimum 300 routes) behind George Kittle (2.65), Trey McBride (2.15) and Brock Bowers (2.02). The closest thing Aaron Rodgers has ever had to a playmaker at tight end was Jermichael Finley so this is an intriguing addition for the Steelers.
Verdict: Improvement
Offensive line
- In: No one notable
- Out: Dan Moore, James Daniels, Nate Herbig
The Steelers lost two starters (Dan Moore, James Daniels) along a subpar offensive line and did not bring anyone in this offseason. This group has potential with two young first-round picks at tackle (Broderick Jones and Troy Fautanu) but not much in the form of experience or depth to protect their 41-year old quarterback. It’s a downgrade at the position when you consider the injuries they’ll probably run into throughout the course of the season.
Steelers Projected Starting Offensive Line
Verdict: downgrade
Front seven
- In: Derrick Harmon, Jack Sawyer, Malik Harrison
- Out: Larry Ogunjobi, Preston Smith, Elandon Roberts
You can’t blame Pittsburgh for shaking up their front seven after allowing 299 rush yards in its loss to the Ravens last postseason. They drafted Derrick Harmon in the first round and Jack Sawyer in the fourth round while veterans Larry Ogunjobi, Preston Smith and Elandon Roberts left the team. As long as T.J. Watt isn’t going anywhere then the Steelers front seven could be better, but who knows how much they will get from their rookies.
Verdict: Lateral move
Secondary
- In: Jalen Ramsey, Darius Slay, Juan Thornhill, Brandin Echols
- Out: Minkah Fitzpatrick, Donte Jackson
The Steelers swap of Minkah Fitzpatrick for Jalen Ramsey and Jonnu Smith was the first trade in at least the last two decades where multiple five-time Pro Bowlers were traded for each other.
It’s another flashy move that gives Aaron Rodgers a weapon in the passing game, but what will it do in the secondary? It at least gives the Steelers more options as Ramsey could play outside corner, slot corner or transition to playing safety.
The unit is marginally improved with the Ramsey-Fitzpatrick swap as both are pushing past their primes, as is free agent addition Darius Slay.
Still, Pittsburgh had reason to try something different. They haven’t won a playoff game in nearly nine years, and the Steelers’ pass defense has been absolutely shredded during their six-game playoff losing streak. They’ve allowed 18 touchdown passes and intercepted just one pass in those games while opponents completed 70 percent of their passes.
Steelers pass defense during six-game playoff losing streak
|
Comp pct |
70% |
|
Pass yards per game |
263 |
|
Yards per attempt |
8.5 |
|
TD-INT |
18-1 |
Verdict: marginal improvement
Overall, the Steelers made small improvements across the board except for the trenches. Still, all the household names changing teams didn’t exactly move the needle. Pittsburgh has the eighth-best odds to win the AFC (20-1) and I have my doubts that this playoff win drought will end with a lot riding on the performance of Aaron Rodgers. In the end, it’s a lot of namepower without a lot of substance for me.
