NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JULY 09: Katie Taylor (L) and Amanda Serrano (R) face off during a press … More
On Friday, Katie Taylor vs. Amanda Serrano 3 serves as the main event of an all women’s boxing card from Madison Square Garden in New York City. The July 11 meeting between Taylor and Serrano finds Taylor putting her undisputed women’s super lightweight title on the line. Taylor enters the Netflix fight card, which is promoted by Jake Paul’s Most Valuable Promotions, with a 2-0 record over Serrano. We examine the odds and prop bets to consider for the Taylor vs. Serrano 3 boxing match.
Katie Taylor Vs. Amanda Serrano 3 Breakdown
ARLINGTON, TEXAS – NOVEMBER 15: (L-R) Katie Taylor and Amanda Serrano fight during LIVE On Netflix: … More
The first meeting between these two took place in April 2022. Taylor won that bout via a close split decision in a contest that many saw as a “Fight of the Year” contender. More than two years passed before they stepped into the ring for their rematch. Between those two bouts, Taylor went 2-1 and became the undisputed super lightweight champion. Meanwhile, Serrano went 5-0 as a featherweight, winning WBC, IBF, WBO, and IBO titles in that weight class.
In short, both women had a lot of time between their first and second fights. That’s not the case for this matchup. Neither woman has competed since their rematch on November 15, 2024.
Both women made adjustments between the first two matchups. I’m not sure if we will see that for this fight.
For Taylor, she does her best work when she draws her opponent in and counters with power, using her footwork and lateral movement to land scoring punches. Taylor cannot allow Serrano to establish range or pressure her into a corner. She has to be aware of where she is at all times. If Serrano can corner Taylor, she can unleash punches in bunches that will allow her to rack up points. The best way for Taylor to avoid that situation is movement, footwork, counters, and ring awareness.
Taylor also needs to take advantage of Serrano’s unwillingness to move her head. In the first fight, Taylor landed 39.2 percent of her punches. In the rematch, that number increased to 41 percent.
Taylor upped her output from 375 punches thrown in the first fight to 529 in the rematch. Look for her to have another high-output effort on Friday.
ARLINGTON, TEXAS – NOVEMBER 15: Amanda Serrano and Katie Taylor tie up during their undisputed … More
As for Serrano, she had success in the first two fights but not enough sustained success to earn her the nod from the judges. In the first fight, Serrano stalked Taylor, using pressure and output to score from the start of the battle. In the second bout, Serrano started slower and then came on stronger. Look for her to pressure from the start again in this scrap.
Serrano has power and volume on her side. She needs to balance those two aspects of her fight game while also leaving enough gas in the tank for the latter rounds when Taylor ups her output. In the first fight, Taylor was more active in the last three rounds. In the rematch, she increased her output in the second half of the contest.
We know Serrano has the power and volume to hurt Taylor badly, which she did in the first fight when Taylor was not 39, which she is today.
The wildcard in the second fight, at least for Serrano, was the cut that was opened above her eye from a head butt. It was a bad cut, and there was some concern from the commentary team that the ref would stop the fight. That didn’t happen, but one has to wonder if the injury caused Serrano to be slightly more defensive, even subconsciously, knowing the fight might be in danger of being stopped.
Serrano wanted this fight to be contested with three-minute rounds, but like the first two matchups, the trilogy fight will have two-minute stanzas. That benefits Taylor, as Serrano’s output and pressure over an extra minute could change the tide of a fight.
ESPN has Taylor as the No. 2 women’s pound-for-pound boxer, while the network has Serrano ranked at No. 3. Clarissa Shields is ranked No. 1.
Katie Taylor Vs. Amanda Serrano 3 Prop Bets To Consider
Amanda Serrano to score a knockdown: +300
Katie Taylor to be knocked down and win: +2800
Total knockdowns 1+: +225
Amanda Serrano to throw more punches: -1100
Amanda Serrano to land more punches: -550
Katie Taylor vs. Amanda Serrano 3 to go more than 8.5 rounds: -1000
Katie Taylor vs. Amanda Serrano 3 to go the distance: -800
Katie Taylor vs. Amanda Serrano 3 to end in a draw or technical draw: +1200
Katie Taylor to beat Amanda Serrano by decision: +175
Amanda Serrano to beat Katie Taylor by decision: -105
Katie Taylor to land 175+ punches: -165
Amanda Serrano to land 250+ punches: -200
Katie Taylor and Amanda Serrano to land more than 450 combined punches in the fight: -125
*Odds via Bovada
Katie Taylor Vs. Amanda Serrano 3 Prediction And Pick
This will be a close fight, and it will likely go the full 10 rounds. Now, who will win?
Taylor does not have to make many adjustments. If she takes what she did in the first fight and adds the aggression of the rematch, she has the ingredients to beat Serrano.
As for Serrano, if she repeats her performance in the first fight, and does not get opened up from a headbutt or a punch, she has the blueprint to victory.
Taylor is the better boxer, but age catches up to everyone in this game and that’s a worry in this matchup.
In the end, Serrano is 0-2 against Taylor, and that means she is the one who is likely to look to make a change ahead of this trilogy bout. I’m not sure if that will help her. The betting pick is for Katie Taylor to beat Amanda Serrano by decision.
Taylor and Serrano are expected to make their ring walks at around 11 p.m. ET.
Katie Taylor Vs. Amanda Serrano 3 Fight Card Date:
Friday, July 11, 2025
Katie Taylor Vs. Amanda Serrano 3 Fight Card Time:
6:00 p.m. ET
Katie Taylor Vs. Amanda Serrano 3 Fight Card Location:
Madison Square Garden in New York City
Katie Taylor Vs. Amanda Serrano 3 Fight Card How to Watch Or Stream:
Netflix
Katie Taylor Vs. Amanda Serrano 3 Fight Card Streaming Cost:
Netflix subscription with ads: $7.99 per month
Netflix subscription without ads: $17.99 per month
Katie Taylor Vs. Amanda Serrano 3 Main Event
Katie Taylor (24-1-0) vs. Amanda Serrano (47-3-1): 10 Rounds – For Taylor’s undisputed women’s junior welterweight championship
Katie Taylor Vs. Amanda Serrano 3 Undercard
Alycia Baumgardner (15-1-1) vs. Jennifer Miranda (12-0-0): 10 Rounds – For Baumgardner’s undisputed women’s super lightweight championship
Savannah Marshall (13-1-0) vs. Shadasia Green (15-1-0): 10 Rounds – For Marshall’s IBF women’s super middleweight title and Green’s WBO super middleweight title
Ellie Scotney (10-0-0) vs. Yamileth Mercado (24-3-0): 10 Rounds – For Scotney’s IBF and WBO women’s junior featherweight titles and Mercado’s WBC women’s junior featherweight title
Cherneka Johnson (17-2-0) vs. Shurretta Metcalf (14-4-1-1): 10 Rounds – For Metcalf’s IBF women’s bantamweight title, Johnson’s WBA bantamweight title and the vacant WBO and WBC women’s bantamweight titles
Chantelle Cameron (20-1-0) vs. Jessica Camara (14-4-1): 10 Rounds – For Cameron’s WBC women’s interim junior welterweight title
We will have more on the Katie Taylor vs. Amanda Serrano fight card as fight night nears.
