Baltimore Orioles Are The Biggest AL Underachievers Of The 1st Half

The Baltimore Orioles entered the 2025 season with high hopes. They were one of MLB’s most recent “tankers”, putting up an abysmal 178-368 record between 2018-21. That’s a horrific .326 winning percentage over that span. All of that losing had its desired long-term impact, however, as the club cleared the .500 mark in 2022 and then advanced to the postseason in both 2023 and 2024. They did this behind a youthful position player nucleus that seemed to be coming into its own.

Those two ventures into October didn’t work out so well, as the O’s didn’t win a single postseason game either year. But still, with players like Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Colton Cowser and Jordan Westburg going to the post every day, the future was bright.

The rub, as it always had been as the Orioles were assembling their core, was starting pitching depth. They were fully aware of this, making moves for established big league starters Zach Eflin and Trevor Rogers at the 2024 trading deadline. They gave up considerable minor league talent, particularly in the Rogers deal, sending infielder Connor Norby and outfielder Kyle Stowers to the Marlins. Eflin did pitch fairly well in 2024, but neither has been much of a factor for Baltimore this season, though Rogers has looked better since his recent return from the injured list.

But the problems go well beyond those two transactions. 2024 staff ace Corbin Burnes (who has since undergone Tommy John surgery) left for Arizona in free agency. And young phenom Grayson Rodriguez, their presumed ace in waiting, has yet to pitch in 2025 after suffering a lat strain.

The result? The worst pitching staff in the American League, with an ERA pushing 5.00. Yes, worse than the White Sox. Zoom in on the starting rotation and the problem is even more acute. O’s starters are dead last in the AL in ERA, and next to last to both innings and strikeouts, ahead of only the woeful Chisox.

Now we don’t want to totally absolve the Oriole offense of its complicity in their poor first half. The club currently sits 10th in the AL in runs scored, OBP and SLG. With the exception of DH Ryan O’Hearn and RF Ramon Laureano, every single regular has underachieved. Cedric Mullins is the team leader in homers and RBI, on pace for just over 20 of the former and under 80 of the latter. Henderson, Rutschman, Cowser and Westburg have all struggled relative to previous seasons and/or expectations. Second baseman Jackson Holliday has picked up his game a bit, but still has a way to go to reach his potential.

So an optimist might say, the Orioles have played better of late (at least until Stowers eviscerated them on Sunday, hitting three homers), and there is no superteam in the AL East – stay the course, and maybe the club makes a second half run. To which I would respond, the Orioles aren’t merely 11.5 games behind the Toronto Blue Jays – they’re chasing four clubs, are at least six behind each of them, and a total of 35.5 cumulative games behind the lot of them. They need to get really hot while the rest of the division falls apart. Not going to happen.

So they’re a seller. What do they have to sell? They’ve already moved middle reliever Bryan Baker to the Rays for a competitive balance pick in this year’s draft. The easiest sell calls are on Mullins and O’Hearn. Both are rentals who are free agents at the end of the season, and won’t necessarily get big value in return. Laureano’s another possibility – his 2025 comeback campaign has been a surprise, to the point that his $6.5 million team option might be of interest to a club, perhaps even the O’s.

Closer Felix Bautista will be an interesting decision. He remains a high performer, and has proved himself healthy after his return from a Tommy John surgery of his own. He has two years of team control remaining, and would command real value in return, but the O’s need good pitchers too, given their offensive nucleus. But if they can acquire high end controllable starting pitching in return, they’ll have to consider it. The Phillies are among the many teams likely to be in touch on Bautista.

The frustrating thing to Oriole fans is the lack of progress on the pitching front over the last few years. The hitters were always way ahead of the pitchers as their minor league system evolved a few years back, and they simply haven’t addressed it. The minor league system remains short on high-end starting pitching. Injuries haven’t helped, but neither have their trade and free agent decisions – both the ones they did and didn’t make. I’d argue that the O’s overall short and intermediate term outlook matches up with any club in their division with the possible exception of the Red Sox, especially after a first night amateur draft haul that landed them five of the top 50 consensus overall prospects. Their position players are that good. Boston has had plenty of pitching injuries as well, but they continued to throw money and prospects at it, and Garrett Crochet and friends are doing just fine, thank you. O’s ownership needs to pony up, and their front office needs to do a better job.