During an Executive Briefing session for the board members of a luxury brand last year, one question kept popping up – when will we reach singularity? I designed Executive Briefing sessions to inspire and educate senior executives and board members on the latest disruptive trends and how exponential technologies create opportunities for business and revenue generation.
So, it was not a surprise when these questions arose, as it was the hype of the moment and congesting the media coverage of artificial intelligence (AI). However, this is not the right question to ask, particularly considering companies, and the board members taking part in the session, may not even be around when humanity has to reckon with artificial general intelligence (AGI) – systems with human-like cognitive capabilities to generalize knowledge, learn new things, and adapt to various situations.
Author of Artificial Intelligence for Business.
What is intelligence, really?
Before delving into the possibilities of AGI, it would be prudent to first explore the meaning of intelligence in the human context. In my new book, Artificial Intelligence For Business, I delve into the depths of intelligence and its definition, a topic of debate even among experts . Whether we approach it from a psychological or physiological perspective, the understanding and definition of human intelligence remains challenging because of one fundamental variable – the human subject.
Intelligence goes beyond information processing, reasoning and problem-solving. It is the ability to reason, learn from experience, adapt to new situations, and make sense of abstract concepts. More importantly, human intelligence is also guided by our biases, experiences, cultural backgrounds, beliefs, creativity, emotional awareness, and our ability to navigate social dynamics.
These are not just mental capabilities, but are embodied and relational. Our decisions are impacted by goals, value, ethics and intuition formed through lived experiences, making intelligence a complex element that is difficult to define and replicate.
Replicating human intelligence
In its current form, artificial intelligence in the most advanced systems, such as large language models or computer vision tools, are common examples of Narrow AI. These are AI systems created to carry out tasks with a high degree of efficiency and operates within predefined rules. It lacks the understanding and adaptability that humans possess. Narrow AI are trained on vast datasets to recognize patterns and generate predictions, but in my view, these systems do not ‘’understand’’ the way humans do.
Intelligent systems do not form context, nor do they possess common sense or emotional insight. It operates based on statistical probabilities and optimizes outputs within boundaries set by the data it is trained on. It simulates intelligence, quickly enough to trick us into believing it is intelligent, but these systems do not experience intelligence. Even the most powerful systems that exist today are simply tools – albeit impressive tools – but are not fully aware of the outputs, goals and implications they create.
So, what is Artificial General Intelligence?
Also referred to as Strong AI, AGI represents the pinnacle of artificial intelligence research. AGI can understand and learn intellectual tasks much like a human being and enables machines to apply knowledge and skills across different contexts. This means solving unfamiliar problems without any prior training, transferring knowledge between domains, reasoning in abstract terms, and continuously adapting.
AGI would be able to write a novel, design a marketing campaign, solve an engineering problem, and give emotional advice, all with the nuance and adaptability of a human. It would be capable of reflection, strategy, and perhaps even self-directed learning. In theory, it could outperform humans at virtually any intellectual task. Although we may believe many of the existing systems today offer these capabilities, what we are experiencing is the incredible speed of processing vast data, uncovering patterns in the data, and producing commonly accepted outputs to respond to requests. True AGI would be able to perform any intellectual tasks that a human can, equipped with understanding and reasoning required to navigate a range of different challenges.
The value of AGI can be truly transformative for humanity, and it is no wonder technology leaders seem to be in constant pursuit of this next frontier. It holds a promise of exponential development across industries, and the potential return on investment so enormous, that every technology company wants to hold the key to AGI. But the uncertainty and risks that come with such systems can also be unimaginable.
Why race towards AGI?
At the center of AGI is a potent mix of fear, uncertainty, economic potential, ambition and ideology. The promise of AGI is not just another technological milestone, it could be considered a foundational shift that could unlock solutions to humanity’s most urgent challenges and the potential rewards are staggering. AGI supporters view it as a potential force multiplier, able to accelerate scientific discovery, optimise resource distribution, and address climate risks.
Commercial incentives are also compelling. The institution or organization controlling AGI would dominate not only other industries, but also redefine how value is created and destroy its competition in the global market. From a geopolitical dimension, AGI is viewed as a strategic asset and weapon of mass disruption that could set global standards, lead in defense innovation, and control critical infrastructure. Additionally, there is an ideological aspect to consider. Selected leaders in the global technology community genuinely believe AGI could elevate humanity for the better, while others are driven by personal gain and legacy.
The race towards AGI
From a psychological and societal perspective, AGI forces us to confront the fundamental question of what it means to be human. Can we create machines or systems that can rival our own mind? Can we replicate, and potentially even surpass, the very thing that makes us human? And if machines can learn, create and think like us, what would our role be in this new ecosystem? How could we aspire to govern such systems to ensure human dignity, purpose and autonomy are fully retained? This is a formidable challenge, and in my view, unrealistic in the near future.
For senior leaders and board members contemplating these questions, my advice is to focus on the more pressing question of how current and rapidly-developing AI solutions are impacting industries and businesses. This, in itself, is a reality that is transforming the world as we know it.
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