US holiday retail sales to climb up to 3.4%: Deloitte

Holiday retail sales in the United States are expected to rise between 2.9% and 3.4% this year, according to Deloitte’s annual holiday retail forecast, signaling a slowdown compared to last season’s 4.2% growth.

The firm’s retail and consumer products practice projects sales of $1.61 trillion to $1.62 trillion for the November-to-January period, up from $1.57 trillion in 2024, according to U.S. Census Bureau data.

E-commerce momentum will continue, with Deloitte forecasting online sales to grow between 7% and 9% year over year, reaching between $305 billion and $310.7 billion. That follows an 8% increase during the 2024 holiday season, which brought e-commerce sales to an estimated $285 billion.

“We anticipate disposable personal income (DPI), a key driver of retail sales, to grow between 3.1% to 5.4% this holiday season. Our research indicates that DPI is a sound predictor of retail sales and e-commerce sales. Steady growth in income can help offset some economic uncertainty, including any labor market weakness and the burden of high credit card and student debt on consumer spending,” said Akrur Barua, economist, Deloitte Insights. 

“While elevated inflation will likely weigh on the volume of retail sales growth, it will nevertheless be a tailwind for the dollar value spent on retail purchases in the holiday season.”