The NBA Finals were supposed to be a walkover. The Indiana Pacers were staggering +700 underdogs. The only team ever to win the Finals with those odds were the 2004 Detroit Pistons. The Oklahoma City Thunder, winners of 68 games and holders of the greatest regular-season point-differential in NBA history, looked downright unbeatable for most of the Western Conference finals. They passed their test against a seasoned champion in the second round against the Denver Nuggets. This was supposed to be their moment.
But, as you’ve surely learned by now, Tyrese Haliburton is the moment. His Game 1 winner gave Indiana a 1-0 lead and home-court advantage in the series. The Thunder stormed back for a 16-point Game 2 win, and at the time, 2001 Allen Iverson comparisons were thrown around left and right. It was cute to see the underdog steal a game, but order had been restored and the juggernaut would thereafter roll to the championship.
That’s not what happened on Wednesday. The Pacers protected their home court with a 116-107 victory. They’ve now played the NBA’s best team competitively for three full games. They are two home wins away from the championship. And we, the supposed experts, have to re-evaluate these teams on the fly.
After all, when CBS Sports predicted the Finals before the series began, none of our six experts chose the Pacers. Only Colin Ward-Henninger was brave enough to even send the series to a seventh game, and if you zoom out a bit, not one of us picked the Pacers to win the East. In fact, all six of us chose them to lose in the second round against the Cleveland Cavaliers.
So now is our chance to atone. We’ve watched three games of basketball between the Thunder and Pacers. We’ve seen Indiana exceed our expectations for three-and-a-half rounds of playoff basketball. So, knowing what we know now after three games, we are going to re-pick the NBA Finals. It’s time to find out if our experts have finally embraced the underdog Pacers, or if they’re riding the Oklahoma City bandwagon to the end of the line.
The Thunder, for what it’s worth, are still seen as the betting favorite despite the series deficit. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Thunder as a -225 favorite and the Pacers as a +185 series underdog heading into Friday’s Game 4.
Re-picking the 2025 NBA Finals
Botkin: Thunder in 7. (Original pick: Thunder in 5.) I feel like an idiot picking this, but I have to stick with what I believe is the superior team (though clearly not as superior as I and many other people thought coming into this series). Game 4 feels like a must-win for OKC. I believe they get that one, as well as Game 5 back home. Indiana wins Game 6, before the Thunder, who have won their last two closeout games by 30 and 32 points, finish the deal in Game 7. When it’s over, we will look back and understand that OKC controlled the majority of this series, while Indiana, which led for less than two total minutes of the first two games, made it interesting by winning the big moments. Indiana’s fourth-quarter fairy dust has to be running low.
Herbert: Thunder in 6. (Original pick: Thunder in 6.) I’m philosophically opposed to changing a pick in the middle of a series, so I’m sticking with this. The funny thing is I thought this prediction reflected my deep respect for the Pacers, a worthy Finals team that just happened to be going up against a juggernaut. Now it looks like I totally underestimated them! However this ends, Indiana is awesome and so is this series. Hope it goes seven.
Maloney: Pacers in 6. (Original pick: Thunder in 6.) I’m a bit wary about moving away from my original pick midway through, especially considering the fact that they’ve controlled the majority of the series. But I don’t know, I just can’t shake the feeling that this is the Pacers’ year. Everyone keeps expecting their “magic” to run out, but it’s not all magic. They’re really good and really difficult to play against. Maybe this will end up looking like an overreaction, but teams that win Game 3 of a 1-1 series in the Finals go on to win the title 80% of the time.
Quinn: Thunder in 6. (Original pick: Thunder in 5.) I’ve picked against the Pacers at every turn, and I’m prepared for them to make me look foolish again. But I just can’t ignore Oklahoma City’s season-long résumé. They’ve controlled the overwhelming majority of this series, winning the first three quarters by 33 combined points. Indiana has dominated only the fourth quarter, and as frequently as they’ve done that this postseason, I can’t bring myself to make a pick based on their end-of-game magic. This series reminds me a bit of the 2015 Finals. LeBron James overwhelmed a Warriors team that was new to the Finals stage at that point early on, but eventually, their superior roster shined through. I think that’s where we’re headed in this one. Given my history of picking against the Pacers, their fans should probably start booking parade tickets right about now.
Ward-Henninger: Thunder in 7. (Original pick: Thunder in 7.) I should feel proud that I originally predicted a long series, but now I actually feel nervous about sticking with the Thunder. Ultimately I’m banking on OKC’s substantial home-court advantage (just eight home losses in the regular and postseason combined) to carry them to a Game 7 win. That being said, they’re going to have to win one game in Indiana, and there are already signs that the Pacers are starting to wear OKC down — which could become more glaring as the series progresses. One thing’s clear: This isn’t the mismatch most expected, and I can’t wait to see the rest of the series unfold.
Wimbish: Thunder in 7. (Original pick: Thunder in 6.) I’ll extend my pick a game but still trust OKC to get it done. Based on where the series is now, I can’t see OKC rattling off three wins in a row to finish off an Indiana team that’s proven everyone wrong. I’m still picking Oklahoma City to win the series if for no other reason than Game 7 will be at home. But this has certainly been far closer than anyone expected, and we’ve all benefited from watching some truly awesome basketball through three games.
