Juan Soto experienced playing in New York last year with the Yankees, but after signing his record deal with the Mets this offseason, the expectations and patience from New Yorkers changed. Soto had a slower start than many Mets fans hoped for, but with two home runs and four extra-base hits over his last three contests, the elite outfielder is proving why he earned the richest contract in North American sports history and has become an asset for MLB player props.
Soto has hit four of his 13 home runs in June and is +475 his MLB home run odds on DraftKings to go yard on Friday, making him one of SportsLine’s best values in the Friday MLB home run picks for online sports betting sites. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks on betting sites.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It’s up 38.95 units on its MLB HR picks during the last 66 days. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Friday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog.
Best MLB home run picks for Friday, June 13:
- Juan Soto, Mets (+475)
- Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres (+500)
- Zach Neto, Angels (+600)
- Parlay these picks for +24050 odds at DraftKings (odds subject to change)
Juan Soto, Mets (+475)
Soto has eight hits, including two home runs and two doubles, over his last four games, as the 26-year-old is playing to his potential of one of the game’s elite hitters. He has a 1.333 OPS in June and after hitting 41 home runs last year and 35 the season before, Soto is displaying his potent power with the Mets. He’s one of baseball’s most feared hitters, and he’s reminding people why with his recent play.
“Soto has hit 10 of his 13 home runs against right-handed pitchers,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said “Rays‘ starter Taj Bradley has lowered his home run rate this season, but he has still allowed 10 home runs in 13 starts. Soto is 0-for-6 in his career against Bradley, but we expect some regression in Bradley’s home run rate and his success against Soto. We set the line at +375 for Soto to homer.” bet365 joins DraftKings for the best price for this prop at +475 odds, and a bet365 bonus code offers new users $150 in bonus bets with a $5 wager, whether it wins or loses.
Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres (+500)
Fetner is aware Tatis Jr. hasn’t hit a home run since May 27, going without a long ball in his last 13 games, but he views this as a buy-low opportunity at 5-1 odds. Tatis Jr. is 8-for-46 over his last 13 games, but he’s only struck out eight times as the contact rate is positive for a player who has been prone to strikeouts over his career. Even with the recent home run drought, Tatis has 13 home runs, tied for the 21st-most in baseball, and he’s hit more than 20 home runs in each of his last three seasons. Fetner also loves Friday’s matchup for the two-time All-Star as the model sets Tatis’ home run line at +350.
“Tatis is 4-for-11 in his career against Ryne Nelson, though he hasn’t homered off him yet.,” Fetner said “Having had some success against Nelson should give Tatis confidence in today’s matchup. He’s hitting .281 with 12 of his 13 home runs against right-handed pitchers this season.” BetMGM is one of multiple sportsbooks offering Tatis Jr. at +500 odds and given the current BetMGM promo code of up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet loses, this could be the best place to make this wager.
Zach Neto, Angels (+600)
Despite no home runs over his last eight games, Neto has five multi-hit contests over that span as he’s been making solid contact recently. Fetner expects the power to return shortly as Neto has 10 home runs this season in less than one-third of the amount of games he played last year when he hit 23 homers. Neto has six of his home runs over 21 road games, and Fetner likes this road pitching matchup as well.
“He’s 0-for-7 in his career against Charlie Morton, but given Morton’s inconsistency and 6.59 ERA, we think there’s a good chance Neto finds success in this matchup,” Fetner said. “We set the line at +400 for Neto to homer, so +600 is a strong value play.” DraftKings is offereing this at +600 odds, and a DraftKings promo code is a strong way to attack this individual play and home run parlay.
Where to bet MLB props on Friday
Here is a look at sportsbooks that will offer MLB player props on Friday:
More MLB picks for Friday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Friday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on a 156-79 roll (+2321.75) on baseball picks. SportsLine’s Jeff Hochman is also 13-10 (+382.5) over his last 23 MLB picks, and he already has locked in a pick for Friday.
