BAKU, AZERBAIJAN – JUNE 20: (L-R) Jamahal Hill and Khalil Rountree Jr. face off during the UFC … More
Saturday’s UFC Baku fight card features a matchup between a former UFC light heavyweight champion and a recent 205-pound title challenger. In that main event of the UFC on ABC event, ex-champ Jamahal Hill faces Khalil Rountree Jr. In the co-main event of the UFC Fight Night card, Rafael Fiziev and Ignacio Bahamondes face off in the lightweight co-main event.
We look at the betting odds, line movement, prediction, picks, and prop bets for the UFC Baku main card, which takes place on Saturday, June 21, from Baku Crystal Hall in Baku, Azerbaijan.
The UFC Atlanta Baku card airs on ABC following prelims on ESPN2. The event has an early start time, with prelims beginning at noon ET. The main card kicks off at 3 p.m. ET.
UFC Baku Fight Card: Betting Odds, Line Movement And Predictions – Jamahal Hill Vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.
BAKU, AZERBAIJAN – JUNE 20: Jamahal Hill poses on the scale during the UFC Fight Night official … More
Jamahal Hill (12-3-0-1) had a 5-0 record when he appeared on a Dana White Contender Series card in July 2019. He won that fight against Alexander Poppeck by TKO in the third round. The victory earned him a UFC contract.
Hill made his official UFC debut in January 2020, winning a decision over Darko Stosic on the main card of an ESPN+ event at PNC Arena in Raleigh, North Carolina. He then faced Klidson Abreu in May 2020. He initially won that bout by first-round TKO, but the result was later overturned to a no-contest because Hill tested positive for marijuana
He followed that fight with a December 2020 TKO over former interim light heavyweight title challenger Ovince Saint Preux.
Hill’s unbeaten streak ended in his next trip to the Octagon, when Paul Craig ended their June 2021 fight in under two minutes by TKO.
Hill bounced back from that loss by rattling off three straight “Performance of the Night” bonus-winning knockouts. That run earned him a shot at then-champion Glover Teixeira. Hill put on a striking clinic in that fight, battering Teixeira over five rounds to earn a one-sided decision win and the UFC 205-pound crown. That fight headlined UFC 283 in January 2023.
Misfortune ended Hill’s title reign. In July 2023, he suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon during a UFC fighter basketball game. He relinquished the title and underwent surgery to repair the injury.
Hill returned at UFC 300 in a matchup against UFC light heavyweight champ Alex Pereira. Pereira ended that fight via knockout at the 3:14 mark of the first round.
Hill returned to the Octagon at UFC 311 when he faced former champ Jiri Prochazka on the main card. Prochazka ended that bout via TKO at 3:01 of Round 3.
Hill, the No. 4 ranked UFC light heavyweight, has seven wins by knockout and five decision victories. His three losses have come via knockout.
BAKU, AZERBAIJAN – JUNE 20: Khalil Rountree Jr. poses on the scale during the UFC Fight Night … More
Khalil Rountree Jr. (13-6-0-1) joined the UFC in July 2016 when a loss to Andrew Sanchez in the season finale of The Ultimate Fighter dropped him to 4-1 as a pro.
A submission loss to Tyson Pedro followed Rountree’s defeat to Sanchez. However, Rountree went 3-0-0-1 after that setback, scoring three knockout wins in his victories. A knockout loss to Johnny Walker, who Rountree was favored to beat, ended his unbeaten streak.
A decision victory over Eryk Anders in April 2019 got Rountree back in the win column, but a TKO loss to Ion Cutelaba and a decision setback against Marcin Prachnio followed.
In September 2021, the UFC matchmakers booked Rountree against Modestas Bukauskas. He won that scrap via TKO. That win was the first of five consecutive victories for Rountree.
Rountree was scheduled to face former UFC light heavyweight champ Jamahal Hill in June, but a self-reported drug test failure knocked him from that card. The Nevada State Athletic Commission suspended Rountree 4.5 months for that drug test failure.
When Rountree returned to action it was at UFC 307 in the main event of the pay-per-view card opposite then-UFC 205-pound champion Alex Pereira. Pereira battered Rountree before ending the fight via TKO in the fourth round.
Rountree has nine knockout wins and four decision victories. His losses have come by knockout (three), submission (one) and decision (two). He is the No. 7 ranked competitor in the UFC’s 205-pound weight class.
When the betting odds opened for this matchup, Rountree was a -160 betting favorite over the +135 Hill. Today, the fight is a pick ’em, with Rountree at -105 and Hill at -115.
Bettors are leaning toward Hill. The ex-champ has picked up 64 percent of the bets and 80 percent of the handle heading into UFC Baku.
I’m leaning toward Rountree. While both men are strikers with power, Rountree is the more well-rounded competitor. If he can expose the openings in Hill’s defense, Rountree will get the win.
UFC Baku Fight Card: Betting Odds, Line Movement And Predictions – Rafael Fiziev Vs. Ignacio Bahamondes
BAKU, AZERBAIJAN – JUNE 20: (L-R) Rafael Fiziev of Kazakstan and Ignacio Bahamondes of Chile face … More
When the opening odds were announced for the lightweight matchup between Rafael Fiziev and Ignacio Bahamondes, Fiziev was the -135 favorite over the +110 Bahamondes. Those odds have flipped. Today, Fiziev is the +110 underdog to the -135 Bahamondes.
The pick is Bahamondes to win via decision.
UFC Baku Fight Card: Betting Odds, Line Movement And Predictions – Curtis Blaydes Vs. Rizvan Kuniev
BAKU, AZERBAIJAN – JUNE 20: (L-R) Curtis Blaydes and Rizvan Kuniev of Russia face off during the … More
The opening odds for the heavyweight scrap between Curtis Blaydes and Rizvan Kuniev found Blaydes as the -275 favorite over the +220 Kuniev. Those odds have stayed pretty steady. Today, Blaydes is -250 with Kuniev at +200.
Despite Blaydes being the favorite, bettors are looking to Kuniev for the upset. He has picked up 74 percent of the bets and 92 percent of the money ahead of this scrap.
The bet for this one is for Blaydes to win via decision, with a chance of a KO victory.
UFC Baku Fight Card: Betting Odds, Line Movement And Predictions – Tofiq Musayev Vs. Myktybek Orolbai
BAKU, AZERBAIJAN – JUNE 20: (L-R) Tofiq Musayev of Azerbaijan and Myktybek Orolbai of Kyrgyzstan … More
This fight was initially booked as a lightweight scrap, but was changed to a catchweight of 165 pounds on weigh-in day. The opening odds had Myktybek Orolbai as the -170 favorite over the +140 Tofiq Musayev. Today, Orolbai is -155, while Musayev is at +130.
The underdog has picked up 65 percent of the bets and 86 percent of the money.
The betting pick is for Orolbai to grind out a decision.
UFC Baku Fight Card: Betting Odds, Line Movement And Predictions – Nazim Sadykhov Vs. Nikolas Motta
BAKU, AZERBAIJAN – JUNE 20: (L-R) Nazim Sadykhov of Russia and Nikolas Motta of Brazil face … More
The second fight on the main card of UFC Baku is a lightweight bout between Nazim Sadykhov and Nikolas Motta. Sadykhov is one of the biggest favorites on the card, opening at -400 and moving to -450. Meanwhile Motta opened at +310 and is now listed at +350. Motta has 57 percent of the bets on him, while Sadykhov has 75 percent of the handle in his favor.
The pick is Sadykhov to win via knockout.
UFC Baku Fight Card: Betting Odds, Line Movement And Predictions – Muhammad Naimov Vs. Bogdan Grad
BAKU, AZERBAIJAN – JUNE 20: (L-R) Muhammad Naimov of Tajikistan and Bogdan Grad of Romania face off … More
Opening the UFC Baku fight card is a featherweight bout between Muhammad Naimov and Bogdan Grad. Naimov opened as the -200 favorite over the +165 Grad. Today, on the eve of UFC Baku, Naimov is -300, while Grad is +240. Grad has 72 percent of the bets in his name, while 75 percent of the handle is on Naimov.
The betting pick is Naimov to win via decision.
*Odds and numbers via BetMGM
UFC Baku Fight Card – Prop Bets To Consider
Rountree to beat Hill by KO: +120
Hill to beat Rountree by KO: +200
Hill vs. Rountree does not go the distance: -350
Hill vs. Rountree does not start Round 5: -220
Bahamondes to beat Fiziev by KO: +385
Blaydes to beat Kuniev by KO: +125
Musayev vs. Orolbai to go the distance: +120
Sadykhov to beat Motta by KO: +100
*Odds via BetOnline
We will have more on the UFC Baku fight card, including fight night results and reactions on Saturday.
