First place in the National League East will be on the line when the New York Mets battle the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday Night Baseball. The Mets snapped a seven-game losing streak with an 11-4 win over the Phillies on Saturday. New York will send lefthander David Peterson (5-2, 2.60 ERA) to the mound, while Philadelphia will counter with lefthander Jesus Luzardo (6-3, 4.41 ERA).
First pitch from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Philadelphia is -126 on the money line (risk $126 to win $100) in the latest Mets vs. Phillies odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while New York is a +104 underdog (risk $100 to win $104). The over/under for total runs scored is 9. New York’s Juan Soto is +350 to hit a home run, while Philadelphia’s Trea Turner is +160 to record 2+ hits.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters Week 13 of the 2025 MLB season on a 37-30 run on top-rated MLB sides betting picks. It has excelled making home run prop picks, returning more than 35 units of profit over the past two months. Anybody following at sportsbooks and on betting apps, or new users taking advantage of the latest DraftKings promo code or Fanatics Sportsbook promo code could have seen strong returns.
Here are the model’s three best bets for Mets vs. Phillies (odds subject to change):
- Phillies ML (-126)
- Phillies run line +1.5 (-186)
- Brandon Nimmo, Mets, over 0.5 total bases (-187)
Phillies to win (-126)
Philadelphia has won three of their last four games and eight of 10, while New York has struggled, losing seven of their past eight games. The Phillies enter the game with the second-best offense in the National League with a .257 average, while New York is 18th in MLB at .244. The model favors Philadelphia, which has a money line probability of well over 50%, giving this a B rating. DraftKings is one of the books with a -126 price on the Phillies, and new users can unlock even more value with a DraftKings promo code:
Phillies run line +1.5 (-186)
The model has simulated the game 10,000 times. It suggests Philadelphia will be able to cover the run line, and has the Phillies winning the game by an average score of 4.8 to 4.5, with Philadelphia covering over 70% of the time, making it the better value. It also has a B rating. The Phillies are 25-14 on their home field in 2025, while New York is 19-21 on the road.
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Brandon Nimmo, Mets, over 0.5 total bases (-187)
Nimmo, a first round draft pick by the Mets in 2011, is on a four-game hitting streak and has raised his batting average nearly 13 points over the past week to .249. In Saturday’s win over the Phillies, he was 2-for-4 with two homers and two RBI. He was 2-for-4 with a double against Philadelphia on Friday. In 73 games this season, Nimmo has 14 doubles, 15 homers and 41 RBI.
The model is projecting 1.4 total bases for Nimmo, and gives this prop a five-star rating. With four instances of overs recorded across the last not favored five games, Nimmo maintains an impressive average of 2.0 total bases per game. DraftKings has this line at -190, and new users can utilize the latest DraftKings promo code if they want even more bang for their buck:
