PHOENIX, ARIZONA – MARCH 02: Kevin Durant #35 of the Phoenix Suns drives against Amen Thompson #1 of … More
Heading into the 2024-25 NBA season, the Houston Rockets were a ball of clay.
After three straight years with 22 or fewer wins, the Rockets went 41-41 in 2023-24 and were in the mix for a spot in the play-in tournament until they went on a five-game losing streak in the final two weeks of the regular season. A career season from third-year center Alperen Şengün hinted at better days ahead for the Rockets, especially after they landed the No. 3 overall pick in the 2024 NBA draft courtesy of the Brooklyn Nets.
They used that pick on Kentucky guard Reed Sheppard, pairing him with their trio of recent top-five picks—guard Jalen Green (No. 2 in 2021), forward Jabari Smith Jr. (No. 3 in 2022) and wing Amen Thompson (No. 4 in 2023). However, it was unclear heading into this past season whether any of them were franchise-cornerstone material. Green was a high-volume, low-efficiency scorer over his first three seasons, while Smith didn’t take a major leap between his rookie and sophomore campaigns.
Although Thompson didn’t get a ton of run as a rookie, Smith’s midseason injury this past year opened the door for him to move into the starting lineup. Once he did, he would not relinquish that spot for the remainder of the season. He wound up averaging 15.9 points, 9.1 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 1.7 steals and 1.5 blocks in 37 games as a starter from January onward, and he carried that right over into the Rockets’ seven-game loss to the Golden State Warriors in the opening round of the playoffs.
With Thompson flashing Defensive Player of the Year upside along with well-rounded offensive contributions, the Rockets suddenly had their potential franchise cornerstone. His breakout paved the path for their blockbuster trade with the Phoenix Suns for 15-time All-Star forward Kevin Durant on Sunday.
The Rockets agreed to trade Green, veteran forward Dillon Brooks, the No. 10 overall pick in the 2025 NBA draft and five second-round picks to the Phoenix Suns for Durant, according to ESPN’s Shams Charania. Although Green has been one of Houston’s two leading scorers in each of his four NBA seasons, Thompson’s two-way upside made him expendable, particularly for a player of Durant’s caliber.
The Missing Piece?
The Rockets were fueled by the league’s fifth-ranked defense this season, but their offense sputtered at times, particularly in half-court settings. They averaged only 93.2 points per 100 possessions in the half court during the regular season, which ranked 22nd leaguewide, and they were 11th out of 16 playoff teams with 92.4 points per 100 half-court possessions in the postseason. That put them ahead of only the Golden State Warriors, Denver Nuggets, Detroit Pistons, Orlando Magic and Memphis Grizzlies.
Charania noted that the Rockets finished 27th in effective field-goal percentage on off-the-dribble jumpers and 24th in effective field-goal percentage on all jumpers, while Durant led the NBA this season by drilling 50.9% of his off-the-dribble jumpers. In other words, the Rockets could not have found a better fit on paper to fill the offensive hole that ultimately upended them.
Granted, it still might have taken some convincing for an up-and-coming team like the Rockets to give up assets for the soon-to-be 37-year-old Durant. He’s showing no signs of slowing down, as evidenced by the 26.6 points, 6.0 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 2.6 three-pointers per game that he averaged this past season, but he’s also in no way aligned with the developmental timeline of Thompson, Şengün and the Rockets’ other young prospects.
“For months on end, the message from the Houston Rockets was consistent,” Sam Amick and Kelly Iko of The Athletic wrote after news of the trade broke Sunday. “They had no plans to get into the Kevin Durant business.”
So, what caused them to change their minds? The Achilles injuries that Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum and Milwaukee Bucks guard Damian Lillard suffered during the playoffs might have compelled the Rockets to make more of a win-now push.
“With Durant leading the way, veteran guard Fred VanVleet expected to return and rising stars Alperen Şengün and Amen Thompson on board, the Rockets decided their time is now,” Amick and Iko added.
Mere hours after news of the Durant trade broke, Indiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton then suffered his own Achilles injury in Game 7 of the NBA Finals. While Haliburton’s injury didn’t factor into the Rockets’ thinking before they pulled the trigger on this deal, it likely removes yet another title hopeful from the mix next season.
The Rockets’ Time Is Now
With Thompson on his rookie-scale contract for two more years, the Rockets have a clear window to take advantage of right now. He’s set to earn only $9.7 million this coming season and $12.3 million in 2026-27. If the salary cap continues to increase by 10% every year as expected, he’ll be eligible for a five-year, $271.3 million extension that would begin with a $46.8 million salary in the 2027-28 season. If if he makes an All-NBA team or wins MVP or Defensive Player of the Year in 2026-27, his extension could start at $56.1 million and get bumped up to $325.6 million in total.
The Rockets’ next two years with Thompson could be akin to when NFL teams build around young quarterbacks on rookie-scale deals. The financial savings they gain from paying those players well-below-market prices allows them to splurge on veterans, even if they aren’t aligned from a timeline perspective.
Amick and Iko reported that Durant “may not sign an extension when he’s eligible in July,” but “team sources said there is a strong belief that this will be a long-term partnership.” Still, Father Time remains undefeated, so “long-term” may only be three or four years at most. However, the league’s current collective bargaining agreement may force teams into trying to capitalize on shorter windows rather than extended dynastic runs.
Şengün’s five-year, $185 million extension and Green’s three-year, $105.3 million extension both begin this coming season. Smith and Tari Eason will both become extension-eligible this summer and would have their new deals start in 2026-27, while Thompson will follow suit the following offseason. The Rockets won’t be able to pay all of their young players, particularly depending on what they do with VanVleet, whom they have a $44.9 million team option on for the 2025-26 campaign. They figure to decline that option and re-sign him to a multi-year deal with a smaller salary, although it’s unclear how low they can get him to drop.
Perhaps the acquisition of Durant convinces VanVleet to take a significant pay cut so the Rockets can afford to retain Smith, Eason and Thompson moving forward. Realistically, though, they figure to start shedding depth in the coming years. The next season or two may be their best shot to win a championship with this core.
If not for Thompson’s breakout this past season, the Rockets might not have been emboldened to cut bait on Green and accelerate their win-now window. But given the flashes he showed during his sophomore campaign and the Achilles injuries that ravaged the Eastern Conference throughout the playoffs this year, it suddenly made more sense for the Rockets to gamble on a star forward who’s in no way aligned with the rest of their roster age-wise.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Follow Bryan on Bluesky.
