The Cincinnati Reds believe pitching prospect Chase Burns is ready to face big-league batters. His numbers in the minors support their decision to call him up – even if it is against the power-laden New York Yankees.
The No. 2 overall pick last July has sailed through 13 starts this year across three levels. In 66 innings, he has allowed only 38 hits and 13 walks while striking out 98. He had a 7-3 record and 1.77 earned run average.
Wow!
Whether he can succeed in Major League Baseball is the question. Many minor-league phenoms have failed. The Reds are certainly not babying him. He will be facing the vaunted Bronx Bombers, led by Aaron Judge (.367 batting average, 27 homers, 61 RBI). The Yankees rank second in homers, fourth in runs, fifth in batting, and doubles and have drawn more walks than any team.
Wow, turned around, is still wow!
CHATTANOOGA, TN: Cincinnati Reds prospect Chase Burns of the Chattanooga Lookouts pitches against … More
Compounding the debut Tuesday night in Cincinnati is that the precocious 22-year-old will be facing that team at Great American Ballpark, ranked by Statscast.com as the most favorable home run ballpark in the game over the past 20 years.
Ow!
Burns certainly has his work cut out for him. He clearly is not pitching for the Dayton Dragons anymore. He made his pro debut with them on April 3, allowing one hit in four scoreless innings to the West Michigan Whitecaps. He fanned four of the first six men he faced and six total.
His most recent start was against the Yankees’ Triple-A farm team last Wednesday. He fanned seven in seven innings, allowing one run on three hits and no walks.
“We knew they were swinging a lot, so we said here it is,” Burns told Charlie Goldsmith of Fox19 in Cincinnati. “We attacked. All pitching is is adjusting to see what they do. They were swinging a lot, so I put the ball in the zone and let them have it.”
Surprise Or No Surprise?
According to one NL scout, Burns’ even-keel approach has been just as important to his rapid rise as has been his 102-mph fastball and put-away slider. “He’s talented yet humble, works hard, accepts coaching and in general is everything you want in a young player. I’m not surprised at all at his success thus far,” he said.
Burns was shocked when he was picked No. 2 and got a record $9.25 million to sign last July. “I was surprised but I really didn’t know what to think,” he said then.
WINSTON SALEM, NC: Chase Burns of the Wake Forest Demon Deacons pitches against the Florida State … More
The 6-3, 210-pounder was considered the best pitcher in the draft after going 23-6 with 408 strikeouts in 252 1/3 innings in college. He had two fine seasons at Tennessee, transferred to Wake Forest, and was even better in 2024: 10-1, 2.70 ERA, 191 strikeouts in 100 innings with 62 hits and 30 walks allowed.
Burns told Goldsmith earlier this year the move really helped his development. “There were so many changes that I couldn’t even name them all. Small things ended up being bigger. Flexibility. Mobility. Mental work. Being at a new place helped me. I didn’t have a curveball at Tennessee as much. They implemented that more so I had the four-pitch mix. All of the characteristics of my pitches improved. The mental game. Drills. All kinds of stuff. Water bags. Core stability. Everything that completes a pitcher.”
Impressive Company
Burns will be the first pitcher picked in 2024 to start a game in the majors. Ryan Johnson, a second-round choice, made his pro debut in April in relief for the Los Angeles Angels. He has since been sent to the minors.
Paul Skenes, the top pick in 2023, not only debuted in 2024, but started the All-Star Game. He won the NL Rookie of the Year award, going 11-3 with a 1.96 ERA.
How do the two compare in minor-league numbers per nine innings?
Skenes in 12 starts: 5.8 hits allowed, 2.6 walks allowed, 14.6 strikeouts.
Burns in 13 starts: 5.2 hits allowed, 1.8 walks allowed, 12.1 strikeouts.
MINNEAPOLIS: Jacob Misiorowski of the Milwaukee Brewers pitches against the Minnesota Twins at … More
Let’s throw in another hard thrower who took MLB by storm last week. Jacob Misiorowski set a record by not allowing a hit over his first 11 big-league innings for the Milwaukee Brewers. It took the second-round pick in 2022 longer to get called up and his numbers per innings in the minors show why.
Misiorowski in 68 games (55 starts): 5.3 hits allowed, 5.4 walks allowed, 12.3 strikeouts. While his hit and strikeout totals ranked between Burns and Skenes, his lack of command and high walks held him back.
Who Needs The Minors?
Some pitchers went directly to the Majors upon signing, most notably Hall of Famers Eddie Plank of the Philadelphia Athletics in 1901, Eppa Rixey of the 1912 Philadelphia Phillies, Ted Lyons of the 1923 Chicago White Sox and Bob Feller at age 17 with the 1936 Cleveland Indians.
Of those to do it in the past 60 years, Garrett Crochet, Jim Abbott, Mike Morgan and Burt Hooton have been the most successful. Others who didn’t live up to being highly hyped were David Clyde, Eddie Bane, Pete Broberg and Steve Dunning.
Notable Quick Callups
Don Gullett got to the Reds at age 19 in 1970 after only 11 minor-league starts. His per nine-inning numbers: 5.7 hits, 4.3 walks, 10.0 strikeouts. Despite battling numerous arm ailments that made him retire at age 27, he compiled a 109-50 career record.
Justin Verlander got the call at age 22 with the Detroit Tigers in 2003 after only 20 starts in the minors. His per nine-inning numbers: 6.1 hits, 2.0 walks, 10.3 strikeouts. He’s still going at age 42 with a 262-151 career record.
Vida Blue was the AL Rookie of the Year and Cy Young winner in 1971 with a 24-8 record at age 22. In 56 games (55 starts) in the minors: 6.2 hits, 4.3 walks, 11.3 strikeouts. Walks were a problem he needed to overcome.
Jim Palmer’s walks were horrible in the minors and he made the Hall of Fame. He got to the Baltimore Orioles at age 19, won a World Series game at age 20. In 29 minor-league games, he walked 190 in 182 innings or 9.4 per nine innings. He gave up only 104 hits (amazing 5.1 per 9) and fanned 155 (7.7 per 9).
NEW YORK: Baltimore Orioles pitcher Jim Palmer and second baseman Joe Morgan, who won back-to-back … More
In 19 seasons with the Orioles, he allowed 7.6 hits, 3.0 walks and fanned 5.0 per nine innings. Not that Palmer lobbed it in. In 3,948 innings, he never allowed a grand slam. His mediocre strikeout rate zoomed up by 27.7% with a runner on third base and less than two outs.
There were two very big reasons for this. Pitchers in the 1960s and 70s were expected to go nine innings, so Palmer did not throw all-out all the time like today’s hurlers. He had 211 complete games and 56 shutouts. The Orioles also had a fabled defense during much of his career and it made sense to let opposing batters hit the ball. Baltimore won 41 gold glove awards including three by Palmer during his career (1965-84): 3B Brooks Robinson, 11; SS Mark Belanger, 8; CF Paul Blair, 8; 2B Bobby Grich, 4; 2B Davey Johnson, 3; 1B Eddie Murray, 3; SS Luis Aparicio, 1.
On the other hand, Shane Bieber hardly walked anybody on the road to MLB in 2018. In 50 games (49 starts) in Cleveland’s farm system, he walked 19 in 277 innings, a remarkable 0.6 per nine innings. He won the AL Cy Young Award in the Covid-abbreviated 2020 season with an 8-1 record, 1.63 ERA.
Chase Burns’ Outlook
The raw numbers support what nearly every scout says: Chase Burns has everything needed to be successful. He has talent, makeup, desire and the intangibles that set special players apart from the rest.
The Reds will carefully monitor his workload, but arm injuries almost seem inevitable these days with every pitcher seemingly throwing all-out on every offering. Whether Burns can have a long, successful career is anybody’s guess. Nobody knows.
It should be great fun watching Chase Burns on Tuesday night on the big stage and into the future.
