On Sunday night, the Oklahoma City Thunder became the youngest NBA team to win it all in nearly five decades. And they’re led by reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who will only be 27 come next season, while his running mates like Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren continue to grow.
This paints the picture of a young Thunder squad potentially primed to complete the league’s first repeat in 2026. But as we all know, that is much easier said (and theorized about) than done. When the target’s on your back with everyone else using you as a de facto measuring stick, things are different. They’re more heated throughout a long season than they should be because no one gives you a night off. No one. Throw in a natural, all-too-human tendency toward possible complacency — it’s really hard to be just as hungry for and committed to winning a repeat title right after winning your first — and a Thunder repeat next year is anything but a guarantee. Even the Thunder’s healthy culture isn’t immune to that.
That’s to say nothing of the Thunder’s competition, which will be preparing for and loading up accordingly to beat them this summer.
Let’s examine the biggest challengers to the Thunder’s throne in 2026, talk about what questions and strengths they have, and give them a good old-fashioned ranking.
Barring some major changes, I’m concerned about the Warriors’ core (Steph Curry, Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler) all being players in their late 30s. The NBA is a young man’s league, especially when you have to play around 100 games over roughly eight months to win the title. But there’s no denying that the Warriors have a lot of juice with Butler in the fold. Give these guys a full offseason and training camp together, and they might morph into a powerhouse.
Are Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert long for Minnesota? Can an aging Mike Conley handle another full season as the Timberwolves’ primary offensive initiator? These are questions the Timberwolves will have to ask themselves in earnest over the next few weeks. But after two consecutive Western Conference Finals appearances, I’m not quite ready to bury Anthony Edwards’ bunch yet, even if they could take a temporary step back. I still think this group can do something special if given the chance.
I won’t deny that the Rockets will likely become a bona fide NBA title contender after adding Kevin Durant. The legendary scorer is exactly what the doctor ordered for a defensively oriented squad that needed more dynamic creation and shotmaking. With that said, the Rockets will be Durant’s third team since 2023 after stints with the Brooklyn Nets and Phoenix Suns. And everyone also talked up the Nets and Suns with Durant in a similar fashion before they … eventually fell flat on their face.
This time around, Durant will also be 37 with a lot of mileage. The Rockets are in a better position than most to mitigate an aging Durant’s workload, but he’ll still be expected to carry a lot as a No. 1 scoring option. If he remains capable of doing so for a full season, then the Rockets will definitely live up to the hype and be a championship-caliber force.
Fun fact: Each of the last three Eastern Conference runner-ups (the Miami Heat, the Boston Celtics, and the Indiana Pacers) all made the NBA Finals in the following season.
Next in line to follow this trend is the Jalen Brunson/Karl-Anthony Towns New York Knicks. As flawed as the Knicks might seem, the top of the East should be a smoldering mess for a little while after Jayson Tatum’s and Tyrese Haliburton’s Achilles tears. Upstart squads like the Orlando Magic and Detroit Pistons might enter the fray, but they’re a bit too young and inexperienced to fully trust just yet. That paints a picture where the Knicks should enter next season as the East favorites (provided they make the right coaching hire, of course).
If they get a great roll of the dice, maybe they go all the way and finish the job this time around.
I hate to admit this, but the Luka Dončić Lakers are going to be a problem. If you still think they have too many questions to address, c’mon now. Be serious. There’s no doubt in my mind they’ll find a way to address everything particularly pressing.
We’re talking about the Lakers, dearest readers. That’s what they do.
They will find an athletic rim-running center for Dončić. They will address their weak perimeter defense. They will find more depth to support their constellation of stars. Somehow, some way, they’ll figure it out. No one wiggles their way out of a tight jam quite like the purple and gold. And when all is said and done, they will be a Western Conference powerhouse. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.
For the time being, Nikola Jokić’s Nuggets are stuck between a rock and a hard place.
On the one hand, Denver’s starting five, led by the best player in the world, remains one of the finest the NBA has to offer. That same starting five pushed the rival Thunder to seven games in the second round, and that was with injuries to Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., and Russell Westbrook. Realistically, the Nuggets might only be a couple of good bench contributors away from turning themselves back into a title-caliber juggernaut. They’re that close.
On the flip side, the Nuggets will likely find it challenging to add those necessary bench pieces this offseason, given how expensive their core already is. Denver has had issues with depth dating all the way to its first NBA title run in 2023. It’s on a newly minted front office to make the right and prudent choices with the Nuggets’ limited assets to fill in the blanks.
If they do, the Nuggets should be neck and neck with the Thunder while seeking payback next spring.
