The biggest domino of the 2025 NBA offseason has fallen. Kevin Durant has a new home with the Houston Rockets. For now, it seems as though the other true superstar that might have been on the market, Giannis Antetokounmpo, is staying put with the Milwaukee Bucks. The draft hasn’t even started yet and we’ve seemingly answered the two biggest questions of the summer. Considering all of the “craziest offseason of all time” predictions that came in April and May, that might seem a bit anticlimactic.
Well, it shouldn’t. Just because those two stories are settled does not mean we are done with high-level player movement. Look no further than Monday night’s surprising Jrue Holiday trade that sent the veteran guard from the Celtics to the Trail Blazers. Or the Celtics’ Tuesday follow-up that sent Kristaps Porziņģis to the Hawks.
We still likely have quite a bit of notable movement coming. It may not lead to former MVPs being traded, but there are moves on the table that could plausibly swing the 2026 championship. They involve some of the best and most notable teams in the NBA. And any one of them has the potential to create a domino effect that leads to several more big moves.
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So, with Durant and Antetokounmpo presumably settled, let’s do a bit of an offseason reset here. What is still left to be settled? What do you need to watch for in the coming days and weeks? Here’s where most of your offseason chaos is likely to come from.
1. Will the Celtics do even more to save?
As you’ve likely heard by now, the Celtics were prohibitively expensive when the offseason began. When the Finals ended, they were roughly $22 million above the second apron line with a $493 million payroll. That was a price they were willing to pay for their old team. The CBA essentially designed the second apron to be a line teams could cross twice in a five-year span, but doing so a third time becomes crippling because it drops future first-round picks to No. 30 overall. The Celtics used one such season this year. They happily would have used their second next season before restructuring from there.
The original plan was, probably, to let Kristaps Porziņģis expire to get them back under the line following the 2026 postseason. They then likely would have traded Holiday for a center, moved Payton Pritchard into the starting lineup and reset from there. But Jayson Tatum tearing his Achilles changed everything. Boston isn’t going to contend next season now. They therefore could not afford to waste a second apron season, so they started saving money. Before the draft even began, they dealt Porziņģis and Holiday in two deals that now have them below the second apron line.
That was what they needed to do. The bigger question now is what they want to do. Frankly, there’s an argument to be made that they should try to save even more money. They still have Sam Hauser on a reasonable $10 million deal. If they could move him into someone’s mid-level exception, they could get themselves within range of ducking the luxury tax altogether. That’s much more significant than you’re likely thinking. The CBA changed the luxury tax formula starting next season. It is now far more punitive, especially to repeat payers. Ducking the tax now could reset the clock in ways that save tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars down the line, which ownership may then be more willing to reinvest in future teams that have a better chance of winning.
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Could they get even more drastic? They have reportedly received significant offers for Jaylen Brown and Derrick White already. If they want to truly reset the entire roster, they should be able to do so with a haul of draft picks coming in. Remember, Brown will turn 30 right around opening night of the 2026-27 season, and White will be 32 at that point. They are probably at the peak of their value now, yet they have long-term deals that could get dicey by the end. If the Celtics chose to move one or both, they could set themselves up to get significantly younger upon Tatum’s return. That’s the extreme approach, but it’s at least a tempting one as the offseason starts to heat up.
2. How are the Nets going to spend?
The offseason runs through the the Nets. A bunch of teams want to save money in the coming weeks and months, and the Nets are their path to doing so. They’ve already started that process by taking the No. 22 pick to absorb Terence Mann. Their status as the only team with major space creates almost a bidding war for Brooklyn’s cap room. Who’s willing to pay the most to dump their toxic contracts into it? And how much are the Nets willing to take? The Nets can get to over $59 million in cap space if they really want to do so, but the more likely figure is slightly lower so they can at least retain restricted free agent Cam Thomas. They could get several first round picks if they’re willing to use all of it just absorbing contracts and facilitating trades.
Of course, the Nets don’t have to operate as a dumping ground. They could also throw a curveball into free agency if they really wanted to. Myles Turner doesn’t have a clear suitor outside of Indiana at the moment. Could the Nets drive up his price, or perhaps sign him outright with the hope that he could one day be paired with a star in a quick turnaround? Could they selectively target younger free agents, overpay them to get them away from their current teams, and then hope they have more upside than they’ve shown? Brooklyn is in the mix for basically anyone that becomes available this offseason. No other team can say the same. They control the board.
3. Are the Mavericks getting a guard?
Kyrie Irving is going to be on the Mavericks next season, but, at best, he’s not coming back from his torn ACL until the middle of the season. Even when he’s back, this team barely has anyone that can dribble. Jaden Hardy didn’t take the step in his third season that most expected. Two-way guard Brandon Williams showed enough promise to get a standard contract, but he’s likely a backup moving forward. Someone on this team needs to be able to break down a defense off the dribble until Irving comes back, and probably afterward as well.
Here’s where things get tricky: Nico Harrison is… let’s say… not a fully rational actor. You lose the benefit of the doubt when you trade Luka Dončić. His “defense wins championships” ethos complicates matters greatly because, frankly, most of the guards that could meaningfully boost their offense would also hurt what could be a very good defense. Dallas was linked to Holiday before he was dealt to Portland, suggesting that the Mavs are really looking for guards that will maintain their pro-defense philosophy even if that means offering less on offense, where they’re really needy.
This is one of the most unbalanced rosters in recent NBA history. An objective observer would likely argue that they have three starting-caliber centers (Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively, and the recently extended Daniel Gafford), two starting-caliber power forwards (Cooper Flagg and P.J. Washington), and two more starting-caliber small forwards (Naji Marshall, and, at this stage of his career, Klay Thompson). They have a surplus to trade from, but by all accounts, they want to remain gigantic. Therefore, they’ve been linked to cheaper options like the 40-year-old Chris Paul. Is there a guard out there that could compel Harrison to build a slightly more conventional roster? Or is he really going to roll with all of these centers and big wings?
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4. Are the Lakers getting a center?
The Mavericks are too big and the Lakers are too small. L.A. traded for Mark Williams at the deadline, but rescinded the deal after a failed physical. Without him, the Lakers got killed on the glass and near the basket in their first-round loss against the Minnesota Timberwolves. There is not a playable big man on this roster right now. They have to get at least a starter and probably a backup in the next week or two.
So how are they going to go about doing that? Well, the obvious way would be to use the assets they dangled for Williams (Dalton Knecht, their 2031 first-round pick, first-round swaps) to go chase another big man. Walker Kessler is a name that frequently comes up. Nic Claxton does as well, though he’s on a more expensive contract. There are starting-caliber centers out there for the Lakers to trade for, but the asset cost would be steep. Move your picks for a big now and suddenly you’re without them later, when you might want to trade for Dončić’s long-term co-star.
Free agency is the alternative there. As of right now, the Lakers are roughly $4 million below the first apron. That means they’re operating with the $5.7 million taxpayer mid-level exception and probably looking at big men that are older or in some way flawed. Four candidates to watch? Al Horford, Brook Lopez, Clint Capela and Luke Kornet, all of whom we’ve covered in more depth here. None of the four are slam dunk additions as starters, and it’s not even certain the Lakers can get one with so little money to spend. That raises another important question: do they have a pathway to unlocking more spending power, perhaps in the form of the $14.1 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception? Well, that depends on our next major question…
5. What’s LeBron going to do?
A year ago, LeBron James offered to take a substantial pay cut to help the Lakers either that non-taxpayer mid-level exception. By all accounts, James is not planning to make any such offer this offseason. He has a $52.6 million player option and he is expected to exercise it rather than opting out to give the Lakers more spending power. He has until June 29 to make up his mind, but his decision is more complicated than it might appear.
If James opts into his contract, he’s on a one-year deal. He’ll make close to max money this season, but then he’ll be an unrestricted free agent next summer. That would have meant nothing to him in the past, but he’s going to be 41 next June. The Lakers could very easily have max cap space, and they might prefer to use that space on younger free agents to help them win on Dončić’s timeline. If James wants to remain with the Lakers, his best bet is occupying that cap space himself, and his best chance at doing so is opting out this summer and re-signing with a player option for the 2026-27 season. Of course, the Lakers don’t have to offer him that option. In other words, there’s room for a compromise here: James helps the Lakers build their team this year, and the Lakers secure James for next year.
There’s no guarantee that’s what either side wants, but it makes a lot of sense for all parties involved. That cut doesn’t necessarily have to be enormous, either. Say Kessler is the center the Lakers trade for. They’d probably be able to shed some money in that deal, getting them closer to the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, and then they could ask James to make up the difference. They could just as easily dump a contract in a non-center trade. If they get access to that extra spending power, they’d obviously be in control of the non-Myles Turner center market, but they could also get a bit more creative. The Lakers also badly need someone to guard the ball, for instance. Nickeil Alexander-Walker would be a godsend.
The ball is in James’ court for now. The option is his. If he wants his $52.6 million, he gets it. If he wants to secure his place on the 2026-27 roster, he might have to cooperate with the Lakers. After all, if they have max 2026 cap space, they’re going to aim big. Literally.
The Grizzlies stated their intentions when they traded Marcus Smart at the deadline. They wanted to create cap space, a necessity if they plan to re-sign Jackson this season for reasons explained in more depth here. Right now, they’re looking at around $4.5 million in space. They need to get closer to $14 million to get Jackson up to the max on an extension. They have several ways of getting there. Dumping John Konchar does most of the heavy lifting. But they haven’t yet, and there has been little reporting in either direction about what Jackson actually wants.
If Jackson elects not to extend in Memphis, the Lakers will be at the top of his list of suitors. He’s everything they’d want in a Dončić running mate: a defensive anchor who can finish as a pick-and-roll big while also creating his own shot and spacing the floor. The Grizzlies, fresh off of the haul they got for Bane, can pivot easily into a rebuild if they want to. The Lakers would make a big offer and so would a handful of other teams. He’s uniquely acquirable given his small, $23.4 million cap figure for this season.
If Jackson doesn’t want to extend, they probably need to trade him before losing him for nothing. Their goal, though, seemingly is to re-sign Jackson and rebuild a winner around him and Ja Morant. So now, we wait for the dominos to fall. How will Memphis clear space, and will Jackson take it?
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7. How aggressive are the Warriors going to be?
The Lakers are the obvious Jackson suitor should he decide he doesn’t want to stick around for a retool in Memphis, but Golden State is similarly appealing. They need another big man, but it has to be one who can shoot to accommodate Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler. Jackson obviously fits the bill and would give them a ferocious defense.
Jackson likely isn’t available for the moment, but the reasonable price Golden State paid for Butler set them up for further additions. Their future draft stock is mostly unencumbered, so they have the assets to add someone significant. The bigger problem they’re facing is matching salary, but that’s solvable if they’re able to get creative in signing-and-trading their own free agents (most notably, Jonathan Kuminga).
Golden State went 23-7 with Butler last season. If they get the supporting cast right, they can still compete for titles into Stephen Curry‘s twilight. So, what are they looking for? As we mentioned, a shooting center makes sense. They sniffed around Nikola Vučević at the deadline. He’s expensive in terms of salary, but likely very gettable in terms of picks. They could also use another shot-creator, as the Minnesota series without Curry showed, and if that guy can defend, even better with Gary Payton II set for free agency. Right now, Golden State would be the obvious Derrick White fit if Boston wants to move him. He checks every box for Golden State and would be a perfect fit in Steve Kerr’s motion offense. The lower end version of that skill set would be Lonzo Ball, though his injury issues are a concern.
There’s a window here for the Warriors if they’re willing to throw their picks into improving. That wasn’t all that likely during the two timelines era, but the last year has shown us Golden State’s priority is the rest of Curry’s career.
8. Who are the secret star-hunters?
There aren’t obvious All-Stars on the market. But you know who seemingly wasn’t on the market? Desmond Bane. When a team calls you and dangles four first-round picks and a swap, you tend to listen. The Eastern Conference is wide open with Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton nursing Achilles tears. Meanwhile, the West is so crunched that anyone hoping to make any noise probably needs to take a major swing. Somewhere out there sits a team with four first-round picks hoping to go for it next season. The question is who those teams might be.
Our first suspect? The Toronto Raptors. They hung around the periphery of the Kevin Durant sweepstakes, and their 2019 acquisition of Kawhi Leonard shows that they’re willing to opportunistically pursue stars when the chance presents itself. By all accounts, they want to improve. They have a lottery roster that is currently above the luxury-tax line. You can bet they’re looking into every feasible star on the market.
The middle of the Eastern Conference is probably the right group of teams that makes sense. Does Detroit think the right trade can get them into Finals contention? Does Atlanta? Miami was stingy with its Durant offers. Does that mean they want someone younger, or that they’re going to be quiet overall. Orlando was the first middle-of-the-East team to seize the moment and push chips in. Odds are, someone else tries.
Looking for a West team? I’ll throw out the Clippers. They don’t have a lot of picks to work with, but the ones they have are pretty interesting. Given their experience with the Paul George trade, they might not be eager to go too far out with picks in a trade, but they have their 2030 and 2032 picks to offer along with swap rights in 2031. Kawhi Leonard will be 39 when those picks start conveying. Some enterprising general manager could look at those picks and see a smaller version of the George trade. If the Clippers want to take one last go at this with Leonard and James Harden, the chance is there for them.
The Durant trade was roughly what we expected. The Bane and Holiday deals came out of left field. That’s what this offseason is going to be. Even if there aren’t mega stars moving, there will be big names finding new homes. It’s just a matter of who, where and when.
