Bailey Ober takes the mound for Minnesota and that may be good news for Detroit’s Riley Greene. Greene has three career home runs against Twins pitching, and has already launched 17 home runs this season. Ober, meanwhile, has had a hard time keeping the ball in the park. Over his last four starts, he has allowed 10 home runs, including three in his last outing, an 11-2 loss to the Seattle Mariners on Monday. Batters have a .946 OPS against Ober this month. Thus, Greene is one of SportsLine’s top picks to hit a home run on Saturday for MLB home run picks.
Greene has 16 of his 17 home runs this season against right-handed pitchers, against whom he is batting .317 with a .966 OPS, and at +425 odds on BetMGM Sportsbook, he’s a top play for MLB home run picks in MLB player props. You can use a BetMGM promo code to maximize your return as a new user as well. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks on betting sites.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. After nailing Juan Soto (+450) on Friday, It’s up 19.15 units on its MLB HR picks during the last 81 days. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Saturday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog, and don’t miss our free picks for Twins vs. Tigers, our top MLB parlay for Saturday and our top MLB props for Saturday.
Best MLB home run picks for Saturday, June 28:
Riley Greene, Tigers (+425)
Greene has hit the ball hard of late, registering multi-hit games in four of his last nine games. In a 9-3 win over the Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday, he was 3-for-4 with two doubles. He was 3-for-3 against the Rays with two homers and four RBI on June 20. With 17 homers just halfway through the 2025 season, he is on pace to blow past his previous high of 24, he set in 2024.
“Greene is just 3-13 in his career against Ober, but given Greene’s hot hitting against righties and Ober’s recent struggle, we believe he is due,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “We set the line at +375 for Greene to homer.” bet365 is offering the best odds at +425, and the current bet365 bonus code offers new users $150 in bonus bets with a $5 wager, whether it wins or loses.
Colton Cowser, Orioles (+430)
Baltimore left fielder Colton Cowser has missed quite a bit of time due to injury, but is quickly making up for lost time. Of his six homers this season, three of them have come over the past nine games. He is already providing a boost to a sagging offense. In 153 games last season, Cowser was among the team leaders with 24 homers. Cowser has had a lot of success against Tampa Bay’s Zach Eflin, going 4-for-11 with two home runs in his career against him.
“Getting +400 here is strong value considering the average line for Cowser to hit a HR is +328,” Fetner said. “Cowser is swinging a hot bat. Over the last 10 games, Cowser has three home runs and a 1.099 OPS. He’s also a strong play against right-handed pitchers, against whom he has a .270 average and .974 OPS compared to just a .150 average and .411 OPS against lefties. We set the line at +400 so there’s fair value here, but this is worth a play considering the Home Run Index at a 10 out of 10 and Cowser’s success against Eflin.” FanDuel is offering the best odds on this play as well, with the best way of making this play being via a FanDuel promo code.
Francisco Lindor, Mets (+390)
Lindor has had three multi-hit performances over the past seven games, including a pair of home runs. In 81 games this season, he is hitting .262 with 14 doubles, 16 homers and 43 RBI. In an 11-4 win over the Philadelphia Phillies on June 21, he was 2-for-5 with a double, home run and three RBI.
“Lindor is 3-for-10 against Falter in his career, but he does have five walks to one strikeout against Falter and has reached base in eight out of 15 plate appearances against Falter,” Fetner said. “This indicates that he sees the ball well out of Falter’s hand. Lindor has been better against right-handed pitchers this season, but his career numbers are slightly better against lefties than righties. Falter has allowed seven of his nine home runs this season against right-handed batters. We set the line at +330 for Lindor to homer.”
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More MLB picks for Saturday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Saturday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on a 170-100 roll (+1181) on baseball picks. SportsLine’s Angelo Magliocca is also 13-5 (+711) over his last 18 MLB picks, and he already has locked in a pick for Saturday.
