The countdown to the 2025 NFL season is officially on. The regular season opens with the 2025 NFL Kickoff Game between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday, September 4. While that day is still several weeks away, we now have a clear picture of what rosters will look like, and sportsbooks have started taking action on NFL futures bets.
In 2024, the AFC West proved to be one of the toughest divisions in the NFL. Three teams — the Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos, and Los Angeles Chargers — qualified for the postseason, with the Chiefs going on to win their fifth AFC Championship in the last six years. Heading into the season, the AFC West once again looks to be among the NFL’s deepest divisions.
SportsLine expert handicapper Jimmie Kaylor has broken down the latest betting trends and NFL futures odds and locked in his top over/under win total picks for all four AFC West teams. Before locking in any NFL futures bets, you’ll want to see what Kaylor has to say. New users can also take advantage of the BetMGM promo code offering up to $1,500 in bonus bets if their first bet loses.
Kaylor posted a 55-34-4 record on NFL point spread and over/under picks during the 2024 season, profiting 15.78 units ($1,578 for a $100 bettor).
Here are Kaylor’s win total picks for all four AFC West teams in 2025:
- Denver Broncos over 9.5 wins (-105)
- Kansas City Chiefs over 10.5 wins (-180)
- Las Vegas Raiders under 7.5 wins (-135)
- Los Angeles Chargers over 9.5 wins (-110)
Denver Broncos over 9.5 wins (-105 at DraftKings)
The Broncos were one of the biggest surprises in the NFL in 2024. Behind a stout defense and a rookie quarterback (Bo Nix), Denver managed to win 10 games. Sean Payton is one of the most successful head coaches of his generation, and the Broncos made a handful of offseason moves that bolstered their roster even more. This is a team that should have a top-five defense, and an above-average offense. I currently have the Broncos projected to finish with 10 wins for the second straight season, but they do have a couple of swing games that could push that total even higher. Use a DraftKings promo code to get more bang for your buck if you are backing the Broncos to go Over.
Kansas City Chiefs over 10.5 wins (-180 at DraftKings)
The Chiefs won 15 regular season games last season, and while I don’t see that happening again, I do expect them to finish comfortably over 10.5 wins. Patrick Mahomes remains the premier quarterback in the NFL, and that alone is worth a few close wins. The Chiefs improved their offensive line this offseason, and they have quietly put together an outstanding group of pass catchers — Travis Kelce, Hollywood Brown, Xavier Worthy, Rashee Rice, and Jalen Royals. I conservatively came up with 12 wins for Kansas City in 2025.
Las Vegas Raiders under 7.5 wins (-135 at BetMGM)
The Raiders are transitioning to the Pete Carroll-era, and should be an improved team in 2025. Brock Bowers is arguably the best tight end in the league, and rookie running back Ashton Jeanty gives the offense another dynamic playmaker. Geno Smith doesn’t move the needle for me, but he is a much more stable option for the Raiders than Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell. This is a team that I don’t expect to contend in the AFC West, but I do expect to see play better in 2025. I currently have the Raiders projected to win six or seven games this season. New users can use a BetMGM promo code to get even more value.
Los Angeles Chargers over 9.5 wins (-110 at FanDuel)
In 2024, the Chargers went 11-6 in Jim Harbaugh’s first season on the job. I expect a similar season in 2025. The Chargers did a nice job of bolstering their roster to fit Harbaugh’s preferred physical style of play, and quarterback Justin Herbert remains one of the most physically gifted passers the NFL has ever seen. I currently have the Chargers projected to finish the regular season at 10-7. New users can use a FanDuel promo code to get even more value.
Looking for more football picks?
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