It’s a battle of struggling arms in the desert, as the San Diego Padres are sending out Dylan Cease (3-8, 4.62 ERA), while the Arizona Diamondbacks are countering with Brandon Pfaadt (8-6, 5.42 ERA).
The top sportsbooks have set Cease’s strikeout prop at 6.5, whereas Pfaadt’s is 4.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Pfaadt Over 4.5 (-104) as a 4-star play on its 5-star scale and Cease Over 6.5 (-112) is a 3-star recommendation.
Moreover, the model has found MLB betting value elsewhere on Wednesday’s 15-game schedule. There is one 5-star play, and two other pitcher strikeout player props that the model has rated at 4.5 stars. Here they are:
Tyler Glasnow Over 5.5 strikeouts (-121) vs. Brewers (2:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 6.5 strikeouts
The Dodgers righty (1-0, 4.50) is set to make his first start since April 27, before he went on the injured list with right shoulder inflammation. Prior to the injury he had shown swing-and-miss stuff, striking out 23 batters in just 18 innings. In his most recent rehab start at Triple-A Oklahoma City Glasnow had eight strikeouts in just 4⅓ innings. On Wednesday he will face a Milwaukee club that has struck out 61 times over the past eight games.
Logan Evans Over 3.5 strikeouts (-153) vs. Yankees (7:05 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 5.2 strikeouts
This is the model’s best pitcher strikeout prop for Wednesday. The Mariners righty (3-2, 2.96) makes his second start since being recalled from Triple-A Tacoma. This is a reasonable total for Evans, who has gone Over 3.5 strikeouts in three of his last four starts. On Wednesday he will take on a Yankees club that has struck out 810 times this season, the fifth-highest total in all of baseball.
MacKenzie Gore Over 5.5 strikeouts (-127) vs. Cardinals (7:45 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 6.4 strikeouts
This is a reachable total for the Nationals lefty (3-8, 3.11), who ranks fifth in the majors in strikeouts (131) and has gone Over this number in 14 of 18 starts this season. He ranks in the 90th percentile in all of baseball in both strikeout percentage (30.6) and whiff percentage (32.1). Earlier this season, Gore faced the Cardinals and struck out seven in 6⅔ innings.
