Some 66,000 jobs, 1.3% of Portugal’s GDP depend on exports to United States: PlanAPP study

A recent study by PlanAPP — the Centre for Planning and Evaluation of Public Policies, published on Monday assessed the impact of the new U.S. trade tariffs on the Portuguese economy. It highlighted the textile sector as the most dependent, both directly and indirectly, on exports to the United States, at a time when the US is applying a 15% tariff to most exports of goods from the European Union, shortly after the preliminary agreement reached between Washington and Brussels.

According to ECO’s analysis, beyond the exposure of Portuguese sectors that export directly to the U.S., the study also considers those that supply inputs used in the value chain of these exports, both from Portugal and from other European Union countries, taking into account the value added and employment in Portugal generated by exports and their respective production chains.

In conclusion: “2.1% of output, 1.3% of GDP and 1.3% of employment in Portugal depend on exports of goods to the U.S.”, both through Portuguese exports and their intersectoral linkages and through exports from other EU countries that rely on supplies from sectors of the Portuguese economy, the newspaper noted.

The study also assessed the “risk of a possible reduction in EU exports to the U.S.” across different sectors. The textile sector, despite being Portugal’s second-largest exporter, is the most exposed and thus contributes most to this dependency, representing around 400 million euros in value added and 14,000 jobs dependent on sales across the North Atlantic.

In other words: around 66,000 jobs and 1.3% of Portugal’s gross domestic product (GDP) depend on exports to the US, with the textile sector being the one most exposed to the risk associated with the increase in tariffs, said Público, stressing that the PlanAPP experts did not confine themselves to examining the value of exports made by Portugal to the US, which currently amounts to the equivalent of 2.1% of GDP, driven more by indirect than direct channels.

According to their calculations, the exposure of GDP and employment from direct exports to the U.S. is 0.5%. It rises by a further 0.5% when including sales to Portuguese sectors that export to the U.S., and by an additional 0.3% when including sales to foreign sectors that export to the U.S.